FRA Eye on Finance Newsletter
Eye on Finance December 2010
 
 

 

IN THIS ISSUE:
 
Regulatory Changes Impact Issuers
 
Schools Look To G.O.s To Reduce Expenditures
 
Reflecting On The 2010 CFD Market
 
Fund Cash Flows Impact Rates
 
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FUND CASH FLOWS IMPACT RATES

  BY THOMAS G. JOHNSEN, PRINCIPAL
 
The bar graph below shows the monthly flow of funds from municipal bond mutual funds for the year April 1, 2010 to March 31, 2011. As indicated, starting the month of November 2010, fund cash flows reversed and became negative. A number of events lead to the huge drawdown on the funds. These include rating downgrades on billions of dollars of tobacco bonds, general market angst about lower governmental revenues and high pension levels, and the seemingly unceasing negative media coverage about governmental finances. Regardless of the cause, investors took billions out of bond funds, turning usual buyers into forced sellers and driving municipal interest rates up. From November 1 to December 15 the 30 year Municipal Market Data average rate increased almost one whole percentage point (3.86% to 4.85%). Since late January, cash outflows have diminished and interest rates, though subject to fluctuation, have become less volatile.

Fund Cash Flows chart

 

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